Oscar guesses: who will vs. who should.

Here's (most) of my Oscar contest ballot, as well as who I think should win. I hope I'm proven wrong on a lot of these, but don't think I will be:

Best Picture:
Will win: KING'S SPEECH / Should win: SOCIAL NETWORK
Both are a bit overrated, but SOCIAL NETWORK accomplishes a lot of things that KING'S SPEECH doesn't.

Director:
Will win: Tom Hooper, KING'S SPEECH / Should win: David Fincher, SOCIAL NETWORK
I admit I'm basing my "will win" solely on the fact that the Academy actively seems to hate David Fincher, who is a prickly guy. But same as picture, SOCIAL accomplishes (via Fincher) a lot of things that KING'S SPEECH does not. And SPEECH feels like any number of people could have directed it, whereas I can't see anyone but Fincher turning out SOCIAL NETWORK.

Actor:
Will and should: Colin Firth, KING'S SPEECH
He probably should have won last year.

Actress:
Will: Annette Bening, KIDS ARE ALRIGHT / Should: Natalie Portman, BLACK SWAN
Annette was wonderful, but Portman was phenomenal.

Supporting Actor:
Will: Christian Bale, THE FIGHTER / Should: John Hawkes, WINTER'S BONE
Bale gave a magnificent performance, no doubt- very showy and actor-y, and the Academy loves that. But it's Oscar bait all the way, down to putting the real-life guy under the closing credits solely so you can see JUST HOW GOOD Bale is. That turns me off. Hawkes, meanwhile, is understated, and pulls a Day-Lewis making a quiet character insanely menacing. He should win.

Supporting Actress:
Will: Hailee Steinfeld, TRUE GRIT / Should (tie): Jacki Weaver ANIMAL KINGDOM & Melissa Leo THE FIGHTER
This one I'm up in the air about, Steinfeld is great and this is a category proven to reward the young. But her performance is very Coen-y, I'm not sure there's as much there as it seems. Meanwhile, Weaver, like Hawkes, drove a fantastic performance but I think the film is too small, and Leo may be the first person to actually lose an award based on the weird "For Your Consideration" ads she placed herself without the studio's support- which were, admittedly, weird.

Best Original Script:
Will: KING'S SPEECH / Should: THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT
Academy goes old here, no doubt in my mind.

Best Adapted Script:
Will and Should: SOCIAL NETWORK
I think Sorkin has love that Fincher does not, and that's enough to get the award in the right hands here.

Best Animated:
Will and Should: TOY STORY 3
This should've been awful, and wound up the best in the series. And of they ear.

Best Doc:
Will: INSIDE JOB / Should: (tie) EXIT THROUGH THE GIFT SHOP and WASTE LAND
There's nothing to INSIDE JOB for me- it's a standard doc, gets you angry, but ultimately a bit forgettable. Neither GIFT SHOP nor WASTE LAND are, though for different reasons. I suspect the "is it a doc" is enough to kill EXIT, although I think WASTE LAND really has momentum right now and I do think it's the best film of the five- it could sneak up and steal.

Best Foreign:
Will: INCENDIES / Should: DOGTOOTH
No more need be said. If DOGTOOTH wins I will eat my hat.

Best Score:
Will/Should: SOCIAL NETWORK
A huge part of the tonal success of SOCIAL NETWORK is the subdued, dark, and oddly sorrowful music of Reznor and Ross. It should win. INCEPTION's best moments come direct from THIN RED LINE's score (same guy), and KING'S SPEECH is so utterly forgettable musically that it may win for the sole virtue of being unobtrusive.

Editing;
Will/Should: SOCIAL NETWORK
Perfectly constructed, nothing was better this year editing-wise.

Cinematography:
Will: Deakins, TRUE GRIT / Should: Cronenweth, SOCIAL NETWORK
The Academy loves rewarding "look" films, and the dusty, though done before, look of TRUE GRIT and their Deakins love should carry this over the cool, crisp SOCIAL NETWORK look that is subtle and perfect, but not flashy.

I don't pretend to know enough about the other categories to make a guess, though I can see art direction going for King's Speech (even if a lot of the look was proven to previously exist as a gay porn set this week), and Costume going for True Grit or King's Speech.

Let's see if I'm right...